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Philosophical notes: While family economy is a relative constant, government regulations is a turbulent dynamic process. Fundamentally economies grow therefore the need for development.
Family Economy – Purpose and goals: Traditionally people grow up, form families and have children. The parents are the providers. As needs increase parents manage their family budget and resources as necessary. Fundamentally population growth is what fuels economic growth.
nIn a cashless society providing for family needs was conducted through <a href=
“A Change Is Gonna Come” by Sam Cooke
I was born by the river in a little tent
Oh, and just like the river I’ve been running ever since
It’s been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gon’ come, oh yes it will
It’s been too hard living, but I’m afraid to die
‘Cause I don’t know what’s up there beyond the sky
It’s been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gon’ come, oh yes it will
I go to the movie and I go down town
Somebody keep telling me don’t hang around
It’s been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gon’ come, oh yes it will
Then I go to my brother
And I say, “Brother, help me please.”
But he winds up knockin’ me
Back down on my knees
Oh, there been times that I thought I couldn’t last for long
But now I think I’m able to carry on
It’s been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gonna come, oh yes it will
(Wikipedia) “”A Change Is Gonna Come” is a song by American recording artist Sam Cooke, released on December 22, 1964 by RCA Victor. Produced by Hugo & Luigi and arranged and conducted by René Hall, the song was the B-side to “Shake“. The song concerns African-Americans and contains the refrain, “It’s been a long time coming, but I know a change is gonna come.” The song was inspired by various personal events in Cooke’s life, most prominently an event in which he and his entourage were turned away from a whites only motel in Louisiana. Cooke felt compelled to write a song that spoke to his struggle and of those around him, and he recorded the song for its first release on his final album, Ain’t That Good News.
Though only a modest hit for Cooke in comparison with his previous singles, “A Change Is Gonna Come” became an anthem for the Civil Rights Movement. The song is widely considered Cooke’s best composition and has been voted among the best songs ever released by various publications. In 2007, the song was selected for preservation in the Library of Congress, with the National Recording Registry deeming the song “culturally, historically, or aesthetically important.””
Development of self driving cars and implementation providing a long term vision vs. a roadway bond “mobility” program (referenced blogs). [Camacho’s concept of “green corridors”]
July 26, 2016 by Chunka Mui
Autonomous vehicles and connected cars are prompting a number of automakers and technology companies to reconsider their strategy. They want to avoid being left behind. But if their strategy is to build and sell driverless cars on their own, they are moving in the wrong direction. Driverless cars are not like simpler technologies, and they are not even like other motor-vehicle technologies. When it comes to this frontier, the appropriate first-mover unit of innovation is not the car, or even the car company. It is the nation.
One of the most promising autonomous vehicle startups is based on that premise. It’s a small company called nuTonomy, based in Cambridge, Mass., near its academic roots. Its cofounders, CEO Karl Iagnemma and chief technology officer Emilio Frazzoli, are MIT roboticists. Its financiers, who recently invested US$16 million in the company, are led by Highland Capital Partners and include significant participation from Fontinalis Partners, Signal Ventures, and EDBI, the dedicated corporate investment arm of the Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB) — the lead government agency working to enhance Singapore’s position as a global business center.
But nuTonomy is not building new cars. It is retrofitting existing vehicles (in this case, electric vehicles from Mitsubishi and Renault) to launch the world’s first commercial driverless taxi service, and it has set its sights on Singapore.
NuTonomy believes driverless taxis will be the catalyst for fast learning and widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles. It hopes to introduce autonomous cabs into Singapore as early as 2018.
In one sense, nuTonomy is competing with companies such as Google, BMW, General Motors, Baidu, and Uber, all of which have announced interest in autonomous vehicles. But nuTonomy is letting those giants battle through the tangled web of competition, policy fights, regulatory hurdles, and other entrenched interests governing the pace of driverless-car development and deployment in the U.S. while it takes its vision overseas. nuTonomy’s focus on driverless taxi fleet services rather than just driverless cars, as well as its work to establish itself in a place that is particularly supportive of innovation, and where none of the other competitors has a foothold, sets it apart.
Driverless taxis are a good place to start. They eliminate the cost of a human driver, enable high utilization, and favor electric vehicles (which are less expensive to manufacture, operate, and maintain), and in the process, they allow for radically new business models.
Further, driverless taxis can make constant mobility, on demand, at a much lower cost than owning an automobile a reality. People spend millions of dollars to own, store and service automobiles; communities spend billions on public transportation. Autonomous taxis could shift all of those expenses.
Singapore is fertile ground for this innovation. As an island nation, its urban density and finite space make it particularly sensitive to traffic congestion and land use. Roads consume more than 12 percent of the island’s area. Its aging population and limited workforce of potential professional drivers makes mobility for non-drivers an urgent policy imperative. Today, Singapore imports half of its bus drivers from other countries. Its environmental conditions — modern infrastructure, flat terrain, warm weather (no snow or ice), and well-marked roads — simplify the introduction of driverless cars. Finally, the nation’s strategic focus on fostering a high-tech, knowledge-based economy makes it unusually open to driverless-car innovation, and its tight-knit, efficiency-oriented government makes it easier to manage regulatory constraints.
Singapore has a long history of public and private support for driverless-car research, development, and testing. An area of the island center is currently open to real-world testing, and plans are in place for eventually opening up the entire island to driverless cars.
Already there is a body of experience to draw upon. Frazzoli, nuTonomy’s CTO, has been conducting driverless research in Singapore since 2009, through a partnership between MIT and the National Research Foundation of Singapore. His research focuses on the complex decision-making rules that govern autonomous driving — a factor that is especially important in “edge cases” where the car must break the rules of the road in order to operate safely and efficiently. For example, when should a driverless car cross solid-line lane markers to go around a double-parked car? When confronted with a police officer directing traffic and posted signs, which should it obey?
The research also looks explicitly at autonomous fleet management (pdf). nuTonomy has developed algorithms that coordinate and balance a fleet of driverless cars based on historical and real-time demand and road conditions. The result will almost certainly outcompete today’s taxi and ride-sharing companies. Human drivers rove, competing for fares, with little ability or incentive to optimize system-wide service. Inefficient routing wastes miles, adding to costs, congestion, and poor service. It leads to supply imbalances, lengthier wait times, and, in some cases, surge pricing.
Fleet management is especially important in Singapore, where reducing the number of vehicles is a high priority. Frazzoli and his colleagues have shown that their approach could enable a 60 percent reduction in the number of cars needed to meet all transportation demand in Singapore, while reducing the cost per mile and keeping waiting times below 15 minutes.
In an interview, Iagnemma, nuTonomy’s CEO, told me of his ambitious plans, including a major demonstration in 2016. He envisions building a fleet of fewer than 100 cars for the first operational pilots, then launching expanded and more sophisticated pilots, and ultimately launching a “radical expansion.”
Singapore’s leaders are equally ambitious. Pang Kin Keong, Singapore’s Permanent Secretary for Transport and chair of its Committee on Autonomous Road Transport, talks about “radically transforming land transportation in Singapore,” not just “to address our two key constraints — land and manpower,” but to “gain valuable insights into how we can design our towns of the future.” That last phrase is the real incentive for both the company and the city-state. Because success includes lessons far beyond technology, it will be hard for others to copy from afar. But it can be taught. In the same way that the Netherlands exports its hard-won expertise in flood prevention and holding back seawater, Singapore could become the go-to resource for making driverless vehicles work. Then nuTonomy could provide products and expertise that move around the world, from one nation to another. Together, or possibly separately, nuTonomy and Singapore could demonstrate the value of autonomous vehicles while making Singapore a first-mover nation.
Has China the resources and capability to overcome its socioeconomic and environmental challenges?
Fundamentals of traffic engineering
Speed, flow, and density are all related to each other. The relationships between speed and density are not difficult to observe in the real world, while the effects of speed and density on flow are not quite as apparent.
Under uninterrupted flow conditions, speed, density, and flow are all related by the following equation:
q = k*v
q = Flow (vehicles/hour)
v = Speed (miles/hour, kilometers/hour)
k = Density (vehicles/mile, vehicles/kilometer)
Because flow is the product of speed and density, the flow is equal to zero when one or both of these terms is zero. It is also possible to deduce that the flow is maximized at some critical combination of speed and density.
Two common traffic conditions illustrate these points. The first is the modern traffic jam, where traffic densities are very high and speeds are very low. This combination produces a very low flow. The second condition occurs when traffic densities are very low and drivers can obtain free flow speed without any undue stress caused by other vehicles on the roadway. The extremely low density compensates for the high speeds, and the resulting flow is very low.
TRC June 2011 75 Years of the Fundamental Diagram for Traffic Flow Theory PDF
(Wikipedia) – “The technological singularity (also, simply, the singularity) is the hypothesis that the invention of artificial superintelligence will abruptly trigger runaway technological growth, resulting in unfathomable changes to human civilization.”
Per Ray Kurzweil reverse engineering of the human brain by 2029. So much for humanitarian optimism if aiding the military. “…only need to look at the 20th century when 180 million people died in the wars…”. At least Kurzweil has some prospective.
Neil deGrasse Tyson and Ray Kurzweil “angry with you for taking our word singularity….it had a perfectly good use…”
- linear progression vs. exponential progression
- expand the size of neocortex
Noam Chomsky interview on the singularity is science fiction
“It’s a common theme in science fiction — mankind struggles to survive in a dystopian futuristic society. Scientists discover too late that their machines are too powerful to control. Computers and robots force the human race into servitude. But this popular plot might not belong within the realm of fiction forever. Discussed by philosophers, computer scientists and women named Sarah Connor, this idea seems to gain more credence every year.”
Notes from attending the ANC general meeting.
Have to appreciate the experience found in public observations and comments.
“Ghost cars” – Waiting at a red light while crossing “ghost cars” have the green light. Sort of a tongue in cheek statement made during the meeting. A very descriptive way to express driver frustration (perhaps).
Side note: Southbound right turning traffic on Lamar has to yield to pedestrians and runners crossing 24th St. which reduces street capacity. The conflicts for street capacity between cars, pedestrians, bicyclists, and buses is challenging.
- City affordable housing program has produced 1,163 affordable housing unites since 2005, 232 are for families earning at or below 50% the median family income.
- Estimated shortage of affordable housing is 48,000.
- Quoted Austin American-Statesman “56% of African-American homeowners who left Austin…soaring housing costs forced them out of the city”
- A “broad-based low-rate affordable housing linkage fee in new construction…” use to build affordable housing.
- David King ANC VP 2 firstname.lastname@example.org
Side note: Shift conversation from building affordable housing to preventing low income families moving out of the city. Two groups 1) those renting and 2) home owners. Renters might need subsidy. Home owners might need property tax protection (Gavino Florez example). Consider half lot affordable housing program.
The Fantasticks (Wikipedia)
The Braess’ paradox
Dietrich Braess, a mathematician at Ruhr University, Germany, noticed the flow in a road network could be impeded by adding a new road, when he was working on traffic modelling. His idea was that if each driver is making the optimal self-interested decision as to which route is quickest, a shortcut could be chosen too often for drivers to have the shortest travel times possible. More formally, the idea behind Braess’ discovery is that the Nash equilibrium may not equate with the best overall flow through a network.
The paradox is stated as follows:
“For each point of a road network, let there be given the number of cars starting from it, and the destination of the cars. Under these conditions one wishes to estimate the distribution of traffic flow. Whether one street is preferable to another depends not only on the quality of the road, but also on the density of the flow. If every driver takes the path that looks most favorable to him, the resultant running times need not be minimal. Furthermore, it is indicated by an example that an extension of the road network may cause a redistribution of the traffic that results in longer individual running times.”
Adding extra capacity to a network when the moving entities selfishly choose their route can in some cases reduce overall performance. That is because the Nash equilibrium of such a system is not necessarily optimal. The network change induces a new game structure which leads to a (multiplayer) prisoner’s dilemma. In a Nash equilibrium, drivers have no incentive to change their routes. While the system is not in a Nash equilibrium, individual drivers are able to improve their respective travel times by changing the routes they take. In the case of Braess’ paradox, drivers will continue to switch until they reach Nash equilibrium despite the reduction in overall performance.
If the latency functions are linear, adding an edge can never make total travel time at equilibrium worse by a factor of more than 4/3.
Possible instances of the paradox in action
Traffic: In Seoul, South Korea, a speeding up in traffic around the city was seen when a motorway was removed as part of the Cheonggyecheon restoration project. In Stuttgart, Germany, after investments into the road network in 1969, the traffic situation did not improve until a section of newly built road was closed for traffic again. In 1990 the temporary closing of 42nd Street in New York City for Earth Day reduced the amount of congestion in the area.<a href="https://en.wikipedia commande de viagra.org/wiki/Braess%27_paradox#cite_note-6″> In 2008 Youn, Gastner and Jeong demonstrated specific routes in Boston, New York City and London where that might actually occur and pointed out roads that could be closed to reduce predicted travel times. In 2009, New York experimented with closures of Broadway at Times Square and Herald Square, which resulted in improved traffic flow and permanent pedestrian plazas.”
How Closing Roads Could Speed Up Traffic – The Braess Paradox
“Scientific Fact: closing roads could actually improve traffic”
Note: The logic explained in the video might not be the intent of the Braess’ paradox. The Braess’ paradox may indicate that, given drivers alternative choices of routes, drivers may pick alternative routes to reach their destination based on perceived benefits. A shorter time might not necessarily represent one of the benefits.The perception that closing of a roadway improves traffic may not be 100% correct. Closing of roads or lanes have related impacts. One of these impacts, when reducing roadway capacity, is shifting of travel routes i.e. some drivers may select a different route; therefore, the perceived traffic flow improvement at one location may be offset by increased delay on another location.If not mistaken, the Braess’ paradox might have been quantified by a study done in Paris in reference to the addition of light rail where traffic shifted from the boulevard to the ring road (highway) creating a greater delay in the ring road (highway) see: Presentation: Pierre Kopp, Professor of Economcis – Paris Light Rail. Also some capacity analysis comparing two modes is provided at Better Understanding Transportation Capacity: Roadway vs. Light Rail.Reference: Île-de-France tramway Line 3
ANC meeting agenda
IN CONGRESS, July 4, 1776.
When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, —That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.
- He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
- He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
- He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
- He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
- He has dissolved Representative Houses repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
- He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
- He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
- He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
- He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
- He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
- He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing Armies without the Consent of our legislatures.
- He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
- He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
- For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
- For protecting them, by a mock Trial, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
- For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
- For imposing Taxes on us without our Consent:
- For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Trial by Jury:
- For transporting us beyond Seas to be tried for pretended offences
For abolishing the free System of English Laws in a neighbouring Province, establishing therein an Arbitrary government, and enlarging its Boundaries so as to render it at once an example and fit instrument for introducing the same absolute rule into these Colonies:
- For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
- For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
- He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
- He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
- He is at this time transporting large Armies of foreign Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
- He has constrained our fellow Citizens taken Captive on the high Seas to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
- He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless Indian Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.
In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.
Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Brittish brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.
We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these United Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.
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